FPL gameweek 2 tips

Here are FPL gameweek 2 tips based on the FPL algorithm numbers. Remember that the algorithm does not count in injuries. You’d be extra careful with teams like Arsenal, West Ham and Chelsea currently, who have many absences. Also note how Liverpool is playing sandwiched by two Champions League qualifiers. Their focus might be disturbed and Klopp could rotate some of his key players against Crystal Palace.

Remember also to check the FPL fixture tracker from here!

Attacking potential

Liverpool is expected to score the most goals this gameweek. However, their chances are probably a bit lower than this due to the reasons written above. Klopp is not going to risk and injuries for the upcoming CL qualifier and he might withdraw some of the key players off the pitch earlier than planned. If you own either (or both) of the in-form duo Salah & Firmino, then I say good for you. But I would never transfer some high-potential (Man City) player out for them at this particular round.

Manchester City come second in attacking potential and this is the team I’d recommend to focus. City had a bit problematic start to the campaign and many people have been in hurry to transfer out KDB and/or Gabriel Jesus. I would NOT do that mistake. City is probably the best bet to score goals this week (due to Liverpool’s CL fixtures) and they also have the best attacking potential in the next 5 gameweeks. City will face Everton (h), Bournemouth, Liverpool (h), Watford and Crystal Palace (h). They are expected to score 2.23 goals per match by average in these games. They have half a goal edge per game compared to Manchester United for example, which is MASSIVE advantage. I’d strongly recommend to have two City attacking players in your team at least until GW 6.

Bournemouth’s potential might surprise many. Cherries don’t have many fans right now after a lacklustre GW 1 performance. The fixture against Watford is an excellent one, though. Liverpool put already 3 goals past Hornets’ defense and Bournemouth should open their goal account also here. There are no stand-out players in the Bournemouth XI right now and you’d be a bit careful if going for their strikers. Joshua King should be the first-choice man in theory, but he hasn’t scored a goal in three months. Summer signing Jermain Defoe doesn’t have much match practice and he didn’t play in the opening gameweek either. The best Bournemouth striker lately has been Benik Afobe.

 

Defensive potential

Manchester United stands out in the defensive potential. I mentioned United last week already and suggested to bet heavily on their back line in the early season, since the Red Devils really stand out in the fixture tracker as well. United is the only team in the fixture tracker with six matches over 40% CS probability. They also have three matches with over 50% CS probability. One of those matches is at GW 2, where United travels to meet Swansea. This is an excellent opportunity for another CS due to Swansea’s squad problems. Key striker Llorente is injured and midfield maestro Sigurdsson was just sold to Everton. These absences hurt Swansea attack a lot and I think the true United CS probability is close to 60 percent.

Liverpool come second, but once again, I’d be a bit careful. There is one Liverpool defender who clearly stands out, though. Trent Alexander-Arnold. The young full-back is covering for Nathaniel Clyne and seems to be cemented to RB position. He also scored a goal at midweek in the CL qualifier against Hoffenheim. Alexander-Arnold is an excellent pick at just 4.5M price. He’s so cheap when thinking totally joke options such Rob Holding or Nacho Monreal cost 5.0M and 5.5M in comparison. You’d also look at the LB position where Alberto Moreno has been picked over James Milner so far this season. He’s also currently priced as bench warmer (4.5M).

Leicester has great CS potential this week, but Foxes are just wonders of one gameweek. Their fixtures turn into horror right after the Brighton match; Man City (a), Chelsea (h), Huddersfield (a) and Liverpool (h). If you have Leicester defenders from the first gameweek you’d be very happy, but transfer them out after this weekend. They are no use in the future matches.

If you are looking for a more long-term solution, trust Southampton again. I mentioned Saints also at GW 1 and I think this team is the CS banker of the early season (together with Manchester United). Southampton’s CS potential is very close to Leicester (40% vs 43%) this week. They have also excellent fixtures coming up after the West Ham match; Huddersfield away and Watford home. I’d be a bit surprised if Saints won’t have three clean sheets after GW 4. You should already have two Southampton defenders (or Foster + DF) in your team by now. But if you don’t -> go make transfers now!

FPL gameweek 2: the best clean sheet candidates

  1. Man Utd: 53% probability for clean sheet
  2. Liverpool: 45%
  3. Leicester: 43%

FPL gameweek 2: the highest expected goals

  1. Liverpool: expected to score 2.07 goals this round
  2. Man City: 2.01
  3. Bournemouth: 1.87

FPL Gameweek 2: expected goals for each match

HomexG_HxG_ACS_HCS_A
Swansea-Man Utd0.641.5920%53%
Bournemouth-Watford1.871.1631%15%
Burnley-West Brom1.020.9539%36%
Leicester-Brighton1.850.8543%16%
Liverpool-Crystal P2.070.8045%13%
Southampton-West Ham1.500.9140%22%
Stoke-Arsenal0.961.5621%38%
Huddersfield-Newcastle1.161.1731%31%
Tottenham-Chelsea1.641.1631%19%
Man City-Everton2.010.9140%13%

xG_H = expected goals for the home team
xG_A = expected goals for the away team

CS_H = clean sheet probability for the home team
CS_A = clean sheet probability for the home team

Check out the historical stats of the algorithm from here.

Image credit: CosminIftode / Shutterstock.com

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