FPL gameweek 4 tips

Here are FPL gameweek 4 tips based on the FPL algorithm numbers.  Remember also to check the FPL fixture tracker from here!

Attacking potential

Arsenal is the team of the gameweek four when it comes to attacking potential. Gunners have their easiest fixture so far this season when facing the weak Bournemouth team at home. The positive thing is that now they also have Alexis Sanchez back in the starting XI. Gunners have had a poor start to the campaign so far and last round they were demolished by Liverpool. This is a great chance for the Wenger’s team to get back to the winning ways. Arsenal potential does not stop to GW4. The GW5 fixture is a tough one against Chelsea, but that is followed by three promising fixtures. The low selected by percentage supports many Arsenal players as well: Ramsey 3.5%, Özil 2.3% and Sanchez 2.4%.

Chelsea and Manchester City come second with almost identical potential. Blues travel to meet Leicester, who haven’t shown much defensively this season. Foxes have already been run over by Man United and Arsenal (for long spells) in their opening matches conceding six goals (+ one missed penalty) in the process. Chelsea striker Alvaro Morata has 2G + 2A in the opening three league matches. He’s been involved in four of Chelsea’s six league goals. But FPL managers will be even more eager to pick his teammate Eden Hazard, who is yet to feature after his long-term injury. He played 77 mins against Gibraltar last Thursday and 25 mins against Greece at Sunday. Chelsea’s attacking potential is second best in the whole league during the next six gameweeks.

Manchester City has been (and still is) a problematic team for FPL managers. They have struggled badly in attack so far and especially Kevin De Bruyne has failed his fans in every single match. Last round Guardiola even shockingly dropped Aguero from the starting XI, when many expected him to start with Sterling. The attacking situation should clear now since Sterling is suspended, but none of the players seem worth the big price tag except David Silva. The Spaniard has set up three goals in the previous four Man City matches and would be my value pick from the squad.

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Defensive potential

Manchester United have dominated the defensive potential list in the opening gameweeks and Red Devils are back at the top. Last round Spurs had the best clean sheet chances, but they messed up the simple task against Burnley to a last-minute goal. United travel to Stoke and face certainly an upgraded threat compared to the opening matches. Still, it’s very likely that United come out with yet another clean sheet. So far United defense has paid off in every match and their defensive potential continues to outrank others. There are no difficult matches until GW 8 (defensively) in the fixture tracker. The back four has been also cemented to Valencia, Blind, Jones, Bailly making it easy for you to pick your favorite (or DDG on goal).

Southampton come second. Saints have been a solid source for clean sheets so far and rewarded the faithful FPL managers with two CS. At GW 4, Saints meet one of the weakest FPL teams at home. Watford have shown glimpses of attacking potential in their opening matches, but they are heavy underdogs against Southampton. I’m sure many FPL managers have Southampton defenders in their team, and if you do, I wouldn’t certainly dump them before this fixture.

WBA have produced two clean sheets in the opening three matches. They were very close to get third as well until Peter Crouch destroyed that with a 77th minute goal. Albion face one of the weakest attacks in the league when traveling to Brighton. BHAFC haven’t scored a single goal in the Premier League so far and there’s a 37% probability they won’t score one at GW 4 either. Of course this means there’s a 63% chance they will, but Albion are still the third best team defensively at GW 4. If you like WBA they have still some nice fixtures coming up until (West Ham and Watford at home) things get more difficult at GW 8. It’s definitely a good idea to have one of the WBA back four players or Ben Foster in your team.

Arsenal come fourth this week since they are so big favorites against the weak Bournemouth team. It’s been mentioned endless times in twitter as well to forget Arsenal defense. However, if you really like their defenders, now it starts to make some sense. It’s not a bad idea to have one Arsenal defender now and rotate him at GW5 when they travel to Chelsea. After that you get two very likely clean sheets coming up. I’d skip 11.2% Bellerin and 10.9% selected Kolasinac and go for Koscielny instead.

FPL gameweek 4: the best clean sheet candidates

  1. Man Utd: 49% probability for clean sheet
  2. Southampton: 39%
  3. WBA: 37%

FPL gameweek 4: the highest expected goals

  1. Arsenal: expected to score 2.72 goals this round
  2. Man City: 1.92
  3. Chelsea: 1.90

FPL Gameweek 4: expected goals for each match

HomeegHegAcsHcsA
Man City-Liverpool1.921.1930%15%
Arsenal-Bournemouth2.721.0236%07%
Brighton-WBA1.001.0934%37%
Everton-Tottenham1.141.5322%32%
Leicester-Chelsea1.311.9015%27%
Southampton-Watford1.760.9439%17%
Stoke-Man Utd0.711.6120%49%
Burnley-Crystal P1.331.1233%26%
Swansea-Newcastle1.161.1233%31%
West Ham-Huddersfield1.791.0634%16%

xG_H = expected goals for the home team
xG_A = expected goals for the away team

CS_H = clean sheet probability for the home team
CS_A = clean sheet probability for the home team

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Check out the historical stats of the algorithm from here.

Image credit: Shutterstock.com

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