FPL tips for gameweek 9

Manchester City Etihad Stadium

Enjoy our FPL tips for gameweek 9, which are based on the numbers of our FPL algorithm. These Fantasy Premier League tips focus on the next gameweek without forgetting the big picture. The future potential for each player is based on our unique FPL fixture tracker. This matrix shows precise values for expected goals and clean sheet probabilities for every team.

Attacking potential

FPL gameweek 9 is dominated by two teams; Manchester City and Chelsea. The attacking potential of these teams is way above their rivals.

Chelsea’s number one spot might surprise some people due to the abnormal performances of Manchester City. But there’re always two sides in a match. Manchester City is way above every other team in the PL rankings, but they face a very low-scoring opponent. Clarets have conceded just six goals this season and they have already demonstrated solid away performances against Chelsea, Liverpool, Everton and Spurs. Burnley have played against all these teams away from home and got a record of 2W 2D to show from it.

I like Watford, but Hornets are going to get hammered every now and then with the style they play. Hornets’ defense was brutally broken by Manchester City some weeks ago (0-6 FT) and they will be face problems against Chelsea as well. In general, Blues have the second highest attacking potential during the next six gameweeks (check our fixture tracker). Hence, it’s not a bad idea to add a Chelsea attacker to your squad right now. Eden Hazard scored a brace against AS Roma in the Champions League and should be definitely considered. If you own Morata you’d also consider him as your GW 9 Captain.

Manchester City come second in attacking potential next round. In the big picture, you must have maximum amount of City players in your team. Guardiola’s team has the best attacking and defensive potential, so it’s up to each manager to decide if you want to include defenders or not. It’s a tough choice to pick three. Especially now, because Aguero’s has recovered surprisingly fast from his car accident. This puts pressure to players like Sterling and Gabriel Jesus, because someone has to drop to the bench.  I’d be a bit careful with Aguero, because he didn’t play one minute at midweek yet. Man City is clicking right now and results keep coming, so Guardiola might not want to break a system that works. I expect Aguero to start from bench if there are no fresh injuries.

What comes to mid-priced players, take a look at West Ham. Londoners might have started the season poorly, but the potential is growing. Hammers come right after the top six in the fixture tracker and face some potential opponents next. I’d consider strongly both Chicarito and Michael Antonio. The latter seems to be the key to West Ham attack right now and is going to bring even more attacking returns soon.

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Defensive potential

Manchester City is also the likely team to hold a clean sheet this week. The match against Burnley shouldn’t be as high-scoring as Chelsea-Watford, but this also means City clean sheet is very, very likely. City have four excellent clean sheet opportunities coming up at GW9-GW14. Burnley (H) 59%, WBA (A) 50%, Huddersfield (A) 50% and Southampton at home 60%. As written earlier, the problem is you can only have three City players. Many managers will use those three slots to attacking players. I have personally made the decision to pick Stones, KDB and David Silva to my team. This way I can enjoy the clean sheets and I don’t have to fear Pep’s rotation either, because this trio is basically cemented to start every match.

Manchester United come second in clean sheet potential. MUFC won’t have too big problems against Huddersfield this weekend, but after that they face both Spurs and Chelsea. This is not the time to Captain Lukaku (or even have him in your team) and not the best time to add United defenders either. On top of this Bailly is still injured and Phil Jones is once more a doubt. I’d stay out of United entirely until GW 12, even if the CS potential is high this week.

Southampton come third at GW9. Saints play against WBA at home, and this fixture has 0-0 FT written all over it. Hence, no surprise Southampton clean sheet probability is almost fifty percent. Southampton have three excellent fixtures in a row: WBA + BHA + BUR. It’d be crazy not to have at least on Southampton defender in your team right now (or Forster on goal).

FPL gameweek 9: the best clean sheet candidates

  1. Man City: 59% probability for clean sheet
  2. Man Utd: 54%
  3. Southampton: 47%

FPL gameweek 9: the highest expected goals

  1. Chelsea: expected to score 2.88 goals this round
  2. Man City: 2.66
  3. Spurs: 1.95

FPL Gameweek 9: expected goals for each match

MatchxG_HxG_ACS_HCS_A
West Ham-Brighton1.590.8642%20%
Chelsea-Watford2.881.0734%06%
Huddersfield-Man Utd0.611.8416% 54%
Man City-Burnley2.660.5359%07%
Newcastle-Crystal P1.560.8144%21%
Stoke-Bournemouth1.431.0037%24%
Swansea-Leicester1.191.1731%30%
Southampton-WBA1.060.7547%35%
Everton-Arsenal1.001.5737%21%
Spurs-Liverpool1.951.1532%14%

xG_H = expected goals for the home team
xG_A = expected goals for the away team

CS_H = clean sheet probability for the home team
CS_A = clean sheet probability for the home team

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Check out the historical stats of the algorithm from here.

Image credit: Mikey / Flickr

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