FPL tips for gameweek 11

fpl tips | fantasy premier league tips

Enjoy our FPL tips for gameweek 11, which are based on predictions of the FPL algorithm. These Fantasy Premier League tips focus on the next gameweek without forgetting the big picture. The future potential of each player is based on our unique FPL fixture tracker. This matrix shows expected goals and clean sheet probabilities precisely for each team.

Remember to see out the European action first before making your final transfers. The fitness level of Harry Kane is especially critical.

Attacking potential

Tottenham is the stand-alone team of the gameweek 11. Spurs have had it tough lately – the Lilywhites were defeated twice last week. First, West Ham made a comeback in the Carabao Cup and defeated Spurs at Wembley 2-3 FT. This defeat had little relevance, but the Saturday’s loss against Manchester United was a tougher one to swallow. Tottenham missed Harry Kane, who was out of the line-up injured. This article is written before Wednesday’s Spurs-Real Madrid Champions League match, where Kane should be fit already.

If you look at the FPL points from the previous five gameweeks, Harry Kane is number two in the Premier League. Kane has scored 13 goals and two assists in the previous nine matches he has started. It’d be a mistake not to have Kane in your team now, because fixtures look great as well.

Manchester City come second this week in terms of attacking potential. Pep Guardiola is making many FPL managers mad with his rotation policy, but this is a risk you have to take if picking players like Aguero. There are also safer options such as KDB or David Silva. One name stands out at the moment from the City camp: Leroy Sane. The German winger has 6 goals and 5 assists in the previous eight matches he has started. He looks also cemented to the starting XI, while Sterling is getting dropped to the bench. Sane is also the number one player in FPL points if you look at the previous five gameweeks.

Liverpool comes third and the Reds didn’t let FPL managers down last week either. We named LFC the highest-potential team what comes to scoring, and they forced three goals past Huddersfield even if Salah missed an early penalty. This was also achieved without Philippe Coutinho, who missed the game injured. Liverpool have great fixtures going forward and Salah is a must-have player right now. Roberto Firmino is also waking up. The Brazilian forward has three goals and one assist to his name from the previous three matches.

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Defensive potential

Spurs possess the highest probability for a clean sheet. Opponents Crystal Palace have certainly started to improve, but Eagles are still among the weakest teams in the league. What you should note is the fact Tottenham have the best clean sheet potential in the entire league (for the next six gameweeks). They even top Manchester City. If you don’t have Ben Davies in your team, this is an excellent time to include him.

Swansea is the real surprise of the gameweek 11 with a whopping 50% clean sheet probability. This is because of two things. First of all, Swansea is a very low-scoring team in general. Since the season started Swans have five clean sheets in 13 matches, which is remarkable considering how weak they are. Secondly, Swans meet Brighton, who are also weak and low-scoring. These facts add up to a match, which is extremely low-scoring affair. 0-0 or 1-0 FT would not certainly come as a shock. The important thing is that Swans are not just one week wonders. If you look at the fixture tracker, they have fantastic clean sheet chances coming up in the near future. It is definitely not a bad idea to pick Swansea defenders to your team right now.

Southampton has been one of my favorite teams this season. Saints have delivered lots of clean sheets as the FPL algorithm has promised. However, the calendar starts to go sour after GW 11. Saints have some tough fixtures coming up and I wouldn’t start to pick their defenders now if I wouldn’t have any. The best period is long gone and if you haven’t had Southampton defense by now you have missed it. I’d go for Swansea or Bournemouth defense right now if you’re looking for value (and don’t want to pay a high price).

FPL gameweek 11: the best clean sheet candidates

  1. Tottenham: 58% probability for clean sheet
  2. Swansea: 50%
  3. Southampton: 46%

FPL gameweek 11: the highest expected goals

  1. Tottenham: expected to score 2.56 goals this round
  2. Man City: 2.38
  3. Liverpool: 1.94

FPL Gameweek 10: expected goals for each match

MatchxG_HxG_ACS_HCS_A
Stoke-Leicester1.461.3626%23%
Huddersfield-West Brom0.970.8244%38%
Newcastle-Bournemouth1.410.8045% 24%
Southampton-Burnley1.090.7746%34%
Swansea-Brighton1.050.7050%35%
West Ham-Liverpool1.111.9414%33%
Tottenham-Crystal Palace2.560.5458%08%
Man City-Arsenal2.381.1233%09%
Chelsea-Man Utd1.201.3127%30%
Everton-Watford1.441.2728%24%

xG_H = expected goals for the home team
xG_A = expected goals for the away team

CS_H = clean sheet probability for the home team
CS_A = clean sheet probability for the home team

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Check out the historical stats of the algorithm from here.

Image credit: CosminIftode / Shutterstock.com

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