FPL algorithm

FPL algorithm numbers are based on a statistical model, where each team has a unique rating for scoring and conceding goals. This rating is built from various data factors involving the previous 10-50 Premier League matches. The algorithm is updated after each gameweek.

Check the expected goals for each gameweek from here.

Track record for the FPL algorithm

The algorithm picks have been published since GW 14 of the FPL 2016 / 2017 season.

Hitrate of the top clean sheet candidates: 56%
Data: 50 clean sheets in 90 matches (expected: 45.42 CS)

Goals scored per match by the top candidates: 2.20
Data: 198 goals in 90 matches (expected: 209.99 goals)

Season 2017 / 2018 selections

GW 5 top candidates

Clean sheet: Tottenham 56% (draw 0-0 FT), Man Utd 50% (won 4-0 FT), Liverpool 49% (draw 1-1 FT)
Exp goals: Tottenham 2.67 (draw 0-0 FT), Liverpool 2.34 (draw 1-1 FT), Chelsea 2.25 (draw 0-0 FT)

GW 4 top candidates

Clean sheet: Man Utd 49% (draw 2-2 FT), Southampton 39% (lost 0-2 FT), WBA 37% (lost 1-3 FT)
Exp goals: Arsenal 2.72 (won 3-0 FT), Man City 1.92 (won 5-0 FT), Chelsea 1.90 (won 2-1 FT)

GW 3 top candidates

Clean sheet: Tottenham 57% (draw 1-1 FT), Man Utd 49% (won 2-0 FT), WBA 46% (draw 1-1 FT)
Exp goals: Tottenham 2.65 (draw 1-1 FT), Man City 2.04 (won 2-1 FT), Man Utd 1.98 (won 2-0 FT)

GW 2 top candidates

Clean sheet: Man Utd 53% (won 4-0 FT), Liverpool 45% (won 1-0 FT), Leicester 43% (won 2-0 FT)
Exp goals: Liverpool 2.07 (won 1-0 FT), Man City 2.01 (draw 1-1 FT), Bournemouth 1.87 (lost 0-2 FT)

GW 1 top candidates

Clean sheet: Chelsea 59% (lost 2-3 FT), Man Utd 50% (won 4-0 FT), Southampton 46% (draw 0-0 FT)
Exp goals: Chelsea 2.42 (lost 2-3 FT), Arsenal 2.05 (won 4-3 FT), Man Utd 2.03 (won 4-0 FT)

 

Season 2016 / 2017 selections

GW 38 top candidates

Clean sheet: Chelsea 58% (won 5-1 FT), Liverpool 58% (won 3-0 FT), Man Utd 56% (won 2-0 FT)
Exp goals: Chelsea 3.12 (won 5-1 FT), Liverpool 2.40 (won 3-0 FT) , Leicester 2.32/Tottenham 2.32 (draw 1-1 FT / won 7-1 FT, average goals 4.00)

GW 37 top candidates

Clean sheet: Chelsea 53% vs WAT (won 4-3 FT), Arsenal 48% vs SUN (won 2-0 FT), Man City 46% vs WBA (won 3-1 FT)
Exp goals: Arsenal vs SUN 2.96 (won 2-0 FT), Chelsea 2.78 vs WAT (won 4-3 FT), Everton 2.44 (won 1-0 FT)

GW 36 top candidates

Clean sheet: Chelsea 67% (won 3-0 FT), Man City 43% (won 5-0 FT), Leicester 40% (won 3-0 FT)
Exp goals: Chelsea 2.53 (won 3-0 FT), Man City 2.40 (won 5-0 FT) Liverpool 2.24 (draw 0-0 FT)

GW 35 top candidates

Clean sheet: Man Utd 56% (draw 1-1 FT), Man City 54% (draw 2-2 FT), C.Palace 40% (lost 0-2 FT)
Exp goals: Man Utd 2.39 (draw 1-1 FT), Spurs 1.95 (won 2-0 FT), Liverpool 1.94 (won 1-0 FT)

GW 34 top candidates

Clean sheet: Chelsea 51% (won 4-2 FT), Man Utd 48% (won 2-0 FT), Tottenham 44% (won 1-0 FT)
Exp goals: Liverpool 2.74 (lost 1-2 FT), Chelsea 2.18 (won 4-2 FT), Arsenal 2.04 (won 1-0 FT)

GW 33 top candidates

Clean sheet: Arsenal 52% (won 2-1 FT), Spurs 46% (won 4-0 FT) Everton 44% (won 3-1 FT)
Exp goals: Spurs 2.99 (won 4-0 FT), Arsenal 1.82 (won 2-1 FT), Everton 1.79 (won 3-1 FT)

GW 32 top candidates

Clean sheet: Spurs 54% (won 4-0 FT), Man Utd 54% (won 3-0 FT), Man City 49% (won 3-1 FT)
Exp goals: Man City 2.68 (won 3-1 FT), Spurs 2.66 (won 4-0 FT), Chelsea 2.39 (won 3-1 FT)

GW 31 top candidates

Clean sheet: Hull 47% (won 4-2 FT), Man Utd 45% (draw 1-1 FT), Leicester 41% (won 2-0 FT)
Exp goals: Liverpool 3.12 (draw 2-2 FT), Arsenal 2.55 (won 3-0 FT), Tottenham 2.33 (won 3-1 FT)

GW 30 top candidates

Clean sheet: Man Utd 54% (draw 0-0 FT), Chelsea 54% (lost 1-2 FT), Tottenham 44% (won 2-0 FT)
Exp goals: Chelsea 2.97 (lost 1-2 FT), Southampton 2.06 (draw 0-0 FT), Arsenal 1.81 (draw 2-2 FT)

Image: Pexels