FPL gameweek 5 tips

Enjoy our FPL gameweek 5 tips, which are based on the FPL algorithm numbers.  Remember also to check the FPL fixture tracker from here!

Attacking potential

Tottenham is the team of the week when it comes to attacking potential. Spurs are yet to win in front of their home crowd at the new stadium, but this hasn’t been for lack of trying. They dominated matches against Chelsea and Burnley but didn’t win either one. Harry Kane had also his August curse going on, which has been finally put to bed. Kane rewarded the FPL faithful and scored twice last round. It’s a no-brainer to say HurriKane is the best Captain option at GW 5 as well. I have personally trio Alli + Eriksen + Kane in my FPL team since the fixtures look great for several weeks forward. The first really tricky match is the trip to Old Trafford at GW 10.

Liverpool has the second highest attacking potential this week. Reds were demolished at Manchester last round when Sadio Mane got sent out early on. After this City run a riot. Now it’s confirmed Mane will be out of three matches. The interesting question is whether we’ll see Philippe Coutinho in the starting line-up, who has missed every match this season? Salah and Firmino are obvious picks from the Pool camp but I’d advice you to get rid of these red shirts after the GW 5. Liverpool fixtures get bad for several weeks and the absence of Mane isn’t exactly helping. But you’d certainly expect some attacking returns this round.

Chelsea come third despite meeting their London rivals Arsenal. However, Wenger’s troops aren’t exactly CS machines any more and there’s a significant quality gap from Arsenal to the title candidates. Gunners concede tons of goals and aren’t expected to have an easy evening at the Stamford Bridge either. I like Alvaro Morata more and more each game and it looks like he’s really settling in. Morata has 3G + 2A in four Premier League matches so far and more is coming. He’ll now get even more support due to the fact that Eden Hazard is back. I wouldn’t pick Hazard just yet. After the Arsenal match Chelsea plays Stoke away and Man City at home, which are not ideal fixtures. Hazard has been out for long time and it’ll take some time to adjust. I’d see out these tough fixtures first and consider him from GW8.


Defensive potential

Tottenham is also the most likely clean sheet team this week. Their opponent Swansea has not scored in three out of four Premier League matches and the new striker signing Bony isn’t in full match fitness either. I’m currently considering to dump one of the Alli+Eriksen+Kane trio to make space for Ben Davies. The Spurs full-back got two assists last week and he has 2G + 5A from the previous 11 matches he has started. There’s also no risk of losing the starting XI position when Serge Aurier is fully fit, who’d replace Trippier on the opposite side.

Manchester United has been mentioned in every preview this season due to their favorable fixtures. Red Devils lock horns with Everton at GW5, which looks like another clean sheet coming. Toffees have already lost 0-3 to Spurs and 0-2 to Chelsea and also got a very fortunate goal against Manchester City. Everton has looked clueless in attack in all of these matches and it’s hard to see this image changing at the Old Trafford. I still suggest having at minimum one United defender (or DF+GK) in your starting lineup every week.

Liverpool come third but don’t stand out as a good candidate really. As mentioned earlier, their fixtures being to go sour and Liverpool won’t be a top CS candidate for the upcoming four gameweeks. There is also Champions League this week and League Cup on the week after that, which will create some rotation. I’d stay out of Liverpool defense for now even if this one particulate fixture is favorable.

You’d check out the fixture tracker for some nice defensive rotation among the weaker teams. Take a look at the CS percentages for WBA and Stoke. And then rotate those defenders with Brighton/Burnley/Swansea. You can get a nice rotation for the next six gameweeks so that you always have a potential cheap defender in your starting line-up.

FPL gameweek 5: the best clean sheet candidates

  1. Tottenham: 56% probability for clean sheet
  2. Man Utd: 50%
  3. Liverpool: 49%

FPL gameweek 5: the highest expected goals

  1. Tottenham: expected to score 2.67 goals this round
  2. Liverpool: 2.34
  3. Chelsea: 2.25

FPL Gameweek 5: expected goals for each match

Bournemouth- Brighton1.551.0236%21%
Crystal P-Southampton1.131.0933%32%
Huddersfield-Leicester1.241.4923% 29%
Watford-Man City0.982.1811%37%
West Brom-West Ham1.481.1631%23%
Man Utd-Everton1.960.6950%14%

xG_H = expected goals for the home team
xG_A = expected goals for the away team

CS_H = clean sheet probability for the home team
CS_A = clean sheet probability for the home team

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Check out the historical stats of the algorithm from here.

Image credit: Shutterstock.com

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