FPL gameweek 6 tips

Enjoy our FPL gameweek 6 tips, which are based on the FPL algorithm numbers.  Remember also to check the FPL fixture tracker from here!

Attacking potential

Manchester City is The Team of the FPL gameweek 6 – there is no doubt about it. Guardiola’s troops meet woeful Palace at Manchester and they are expected to pick up where they left last Saturday. City have been trashing their opponents lately and put six goals past Watford at GW 5 as well. City is not only the number one team this weekend but also during the next five gameweeks. City have some fantastic fixtures coming up such as home matches against Palace, Stoke and Burnley. Even if they meet Chelsea in-between, the chances are City forwards will have lots of attacking returns in the near future. The only problem is: who do you pick? Kevin De Bruyne, David Silva, Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus are all giving attacking returns. Not only you can just have three of them, but you might also want to invest to City defense…

Spurs come second in the attacking potential. Lilywhites have let many FPL managers down this season by constantly failing in their home matches. Spurs shot amazingly 54 times against Swansea and Burnley and yet managed to score just one goal. Harry Kane broke his early-season curse with two goals against Everton, but he has then blanked four other matches. Spurs have still three good fixtures left: West Ham, Huddersfield and Bournemouth. I’d keep at least Kane in my team for now and let him go at GW 9 if nothing has happened since Spurs will meet Liverpool (followed by Manchester United).

Arsenal come third on paper, but you’d be careful with Gunners at the moment, Mezut Özil got injured last weekend and he’s not certain to play. Alexis Sanchez is fit in theory, but he doesn’t look like an attacker you’d want to pick to your team even with half of the current price. It’s a potential banana slip against well-camping WBA side and I wouldn’t make any moves for Gunners attackers right now.

If you’ve been dying to bring Wayne Rooney or any other Everton players to your squad, now it’s the time. EFC is facing Bournemouth and Burnley next and both matches are played at the Goodison Park. I don’t personally see any point looking at Toffees considering their early-season form, but the fixtures are finally making sense at least!

 

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Defensive potential

Manchester City is also the number one CS candidate this weekend. Many FPL managers will be scratching their heads due to the obvious problem of not being able to pick more than three City players. Kyle Walker has picked up an assist in three consecutive matches and he looks like a defender you want to pick. City have also the best CS chances for the next six gameweeks. This is in fact the first time when Manchester United is not the most likely CS team going forward. The problem is though, how many City defenders you can fit after KDB, Silva, Aguero…

Arsenal have held two unlikely clean sheets in a row. The 3-0 home win over Bournemouth was no shock of course, but few could predict a CS for Wenger’s troops at the Stamford Bridge. Many FPL managers love Arsenal wing-back Kolasinac, who is getting nice returns from his wing-back position. Kolasinac has 2G + 3A in his last seven matches. That’s not bad at all! Arsenal have nice fixtures coming up in the next five gameweeks so it’s definitely not a bad idea to have Kolasinac or other red-shirted defenders in your team right now. I was heavily against Arsenal defenders in the opening three gameweeks due to poor fixtures. But now it’s a different story when WBA, Brighton and Watford are coming up next.

The good old Manchester United comes third and they have once again an excellent CS shot. Red Devils lock horns with Saints, who don’t produce the goods in attack right now. Or haven’t really done that all season. United are no longer the top team when going six gameweeks forward, but the fixtures remain solid for two more rounds. Then Mourinho’s men meet Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea all inside four gameweeks (GW8 to GW 11). You’d hold on to your United defenders for two more rounds and then consider a switch.

FPL gameweek 6: the best clean sheet candidates

  1. Man City: 54% probability for clean sheet
  2. Arsenal: 45%
  3. Man Utd: 44%

FPL gameweek 6: the highest expected goals

  1. Man City: expected to score 2.90 goals this round
  2. Spurs: 2.15
  3. Arsenal: 2.10

FPL Gameweek 6: expected goals for each match

MatchxG_HxG_ACS_HCS_A
West Ham-Spurs0.982.1512%38%
Burnley-Huddersfield1.270.9240%28%
Everton-Bournemouth1.801.0037% 17%
Man City-Crystal P2.900.6354%06%
Southampton-Man Utd0.811.6619%44%
Stoke-Chelsea0.951.8017%39%
Swansea-Watford1.311.1631%27%
Leicester-Liverpool1.331.8116%26%
Brighton-Newcastle1.061.1432%35%
Arsenal-West Brom2.100.7945%12%

xG_H = expected goals for the home team
xG_A = expected goals for the away team

CS_H = clean sheet probability for the home team
CS_A = clean sheet probability for the home team

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Check out the historical stats of the algorithm from here.

Image credit: Shutterstock.com

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