FPL tips for gameweek 12

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Enjoy our FPL tips for gameweek 12, which are based on predictions of the FPL algorithm. These Fantasy Premier League tips focus on the next gameweek without forgetting the big picture. The future potential of each player is based on our unique FPL fixture tracker. This matrix shows expected goals and clean sheet probabilities precisely for each team.

Note: be careful with Everton and West Ham at the moment. The algorithm does not count in any (positive) changes their recent managers changes might cause. Maybe the teams improve or become higher/lower scoring. If big changes will happen, algorithm values will be updated quickly to reflect the current state of the team(s).

Attacking potential

It’s not a big surprise to see Manchester City at the top of the expected goals list. City have been very solid this season and possess such firepower no other PL team can match it right now. As mentioned before, Guardiola is causing some headaches to FPL managers with his rotation. If you look at City lineups lately they seem quite cemented in midfield and defense. In attack it’s certain Aguero won’t start every single match and I’m still not picking up the Argentinian striker. He’s such an expensive guy to have with rotation fear.

On midfield it’s usually been Sterling who has suffered. The England national team winger is also rated 50-50 at the moment, so I’d be careful to pick him. Leroy Sane has cemented his place in the starting XI and he’s in fantastic form currently. Manchester City have juicy fixtures going forward and they are miles above in attacking potential compared to any other team. It’d be crazy not to include three City players in your team.

Watford come second this week since the other top teams are facing a bit tougher opponents. Liverpool and United play at home, but they face extremely low-scoring teams (Southampton, Newcastle). Hence, LFC and MUFC are great value in defense but you’d expect more like 1-0 FT scores from them. Hornets have been fantastic this season and their in-form midfielder Richarlison is a popular pick among the FPL fans. Even if Watford have great potential this week I urge you to look at the fixture tracker – the following weeks provide very little joy in attack!

I’d definitely keep Richarlison in my team this week but do not add him or other Watford players if you have none. There’s also additional risk regarding West Ham, who have just sacked their manager. It could be Hammers get a healthy boost from signing Moyes and improve defensively.

Manchester United come third in attacking potential. They also have potential fixtures in the following two rounds; MUFC face Newcastle, Brighton and Watford. However, these are followed by two nasty fixtures. My problem is that when I look at the United XI I cannot see one single interesting player in it. Lukaku has not scored in seven (!) matches and nobody else is getting attacking returns either.

 

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Defensive potential

We continue with Manchester United here. As mentioned above, the attack doesn’t really look tempting right now. Mkhitaryan and Lukaku aren’t scoring, Pogba is still injured and you never know when Rashford is benched. But United is again the top pick for clean sheets. This was the story early season and it paid off to trust Red Devils (and our algorithm). Now they are back in the pole position with couple of almost certain clean sheets on the horizon.

The MUFC clean sheet potential is the best in the entire league when looking at six gameweeks forward. Valencia is always a safe pick, but the question is what happens in the CB position. Bailly is back in the starting XI, but this is due to the fact Mourinho has used a 5-man defense lately (against CFC and Spurs). United is going to revert to back four again and one of the trio Smalling, Jones and Bailly will drop out. When this article is being written Phil Jones is marked as a heavy doubt, but this is the status he’s had all year…

Liverpool come second in the clean sheet list. I have personally Alberto Moreno in m y team and I think he and Joe Gomez are fanastic picks at 4.5-4.6M prices. Liverpool CS potential is underrated and these full-backs provide nice value compared to many 5.0-5.5m priced defenders. If you don’t have either one this is not a bad time to make a transfer!

Burnley are the third best team this week but I’d actually put my eyes on Bournemouth. Cherries have finally started to build some form and momentum. They defeated Newcastle before the break and constantly look better than the pre-match estimations. If you look at the fixture tracker, you’ll see that Bournemouth have a fantastic schedule going forward. They are very likely to hold a clean sheet against HTAFC as well at GW 12. After that Bournemouth have four other low-scoring fixtures with 36-42% clean sheet chance in each. Charlie Daniels and Nathan Ake have the best PPM ratio so far and cost only 4.8-4.9m at the moment.

FPL gameweek 12: the best clean sheet candidates

  1. Man Utd: 61% probability for clean sheet
  2. Liverpool: 51%
  3. Burnley: 49%

FPL gameweek 12: the highest expected goals

  1. Man City: expected to score 2.49 goals this round
  2. Watford: 2.05
  3. Manchester United: 1.89

FPL Gameweek 12: expected goals for each match

MatchxG_HxG_ACS_HCS_A
Arsenal-Spurs1.401.5421%25%
Bournemouth-Huddersfield1.050.7846%35%
Burnley-Swansea1.140.7249% 32%
Crystal P-Everton1.021.0336%36%
Leicester-Man City1.162.4908%31%
Liverpool-Southampton1.840.6851%16%
West Brom-Chelsea0.841.7817%43%
Man Utd-Newcastle1.890.5061%15%
Watford-West Ham2.051.3526%13%
Brighton-Stoke1.100.9738%33%

xG_H = expected goals for the home team
xG_A = expected goals for the away team

CS_H = clean sheet probability for the home team
CS_A = clean sheet probability for the home team

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Check out the historical stats of the algorithm from here.

Image credit: iStock / Chris Hepburn

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