The Best FPL Forwards

The best attackers in FPL are centre-forwards. When deciding who the best FPL forwards are, managers often battle with form vs. fixtures. Strikers are the only players in FPL who you can rank based on the team’s expected goals.

The best FPL strikers are centre-forwards who are also on penalties. The relevant stats for the best FPL forwards are shots per game and xG per 90 minutes.

Centre-forwards are the best FPL attackers

The best attackers in FPL are centre-forwards. This refers to attackers who play the so-called number 9 role in football. Most often, players spearhead the attack in the popular 4-2-3-1 formation.

Teams used to play a lot with 4-4-2, which meant they had two strikers (centre-forwards). This formation is pretty much outdated now.

Centre-forwards are the best FPL forwards because these players are supposed to end the attacks. They are the targets of crosses and through-balls. This means they tend to get the most opportunities to score.

Well-known centre-forwards in the Premier League are Erling Haaland, Ollie Watkins, Alexander Isak, and Nicolas Jackson.

Another popular alternative is a 3-man forward line, which uses 3-4-3 or 4-3-3 formations. There, forwards can be practically wingers, a significant handicap for goalscoring opportunities.

Finding the best FPL forwards: Form vs. Fixtures

When deciding who the best FPL forwards are, managers often battle with form vs. fixtures. What does this mean? It means that you have to often choose between:

1. A striker who is in good form but is having a tough fixture
2. A striker who hasn’t scored in a couple of matches but is having an easy fixture

FPL managers usually make the mistake of putting too much weight on the form. And not just that, but only looking at goals scored. Most FPL managers don’t even look at the xG numbers, which gives you a good idea of whether the player has had even chances to score.

You must understand that scoring goals is a bit like playing roulette. You place your money and cover a certain percentage of possible outcomes. Even if you have a 25 % chance of winning, you might go ten without a win. The same goes for scoring a goal.

Below is a picture of Erling Haaland. Despite high expected goal probabilities, he can go several matches without scoring a goal.

It’s generally a mistake to give up on a good striker because he hasn’t scored a goal in a few matches. The biggest mistake is to sell a striker right before an easy home fixture just because he hasn’t scored in a couple of matches. If you are giving up on a player, do it at least before a fixture where his scoring chances are limited.

Confidence and good form should slightly increase scoring chances; it doesn’t mean the player will automatically score. I’d never pick a confident player with a 40 % chance of scoring over a not-so-confident player with a 50 %+ chance of scoring.

Fixtures (meaning expected goals) should always be your base case. The form is more like a tweak. You’d use it as a tie-breaker between two otherwise equal players.

Only expected goals matter

Strikers are the only players in FPL who you can rank based on the team’s expected goals. Whether the team loses, plays a draw, or wins the match doesn’t matter. All that matters is how many goals they are expected to score.

The best FPL forward value picks are strikers from high-scoring lower-midtable teams with a great fixture run. Their cheap strikers could offer excellent value when teams like West Ham or Leicester play against other bottom-half teams.

Of course, it helps if a team wins because players are more confident, and the strikers probably get more chances than they would usually get. But this is mostly already in the FPL FDR numbers because the team ranking is updated every two gameweeks.

The point is that don’t be afraid to pick strikers from poorer teams as well. Sometimes, you might even have strikers from the relegated teams! The first-choice 5.5M striker of a bottom-table team is probably much better value than a 5.5M midfielder from a midtable team.

Look for set FPL attackers with set piece duties

The best FPL strikers are centre-forwards who are also on penalties. A team’s number-one striker is typically its number-one penalty taker. This is not always the case, especially with top teams, but it is often true.

You should prefer strikers who have penalty duties. Teams receive quite a few penalties each season, which will quickly add up to 20+ extra points plus additional bonuses.

Sometimes, we see centre-forwards like Harry Kane, who also take set pieces. But this is rarer. Top teams usually have an excellent midfielder who takes dangerous free kicks. If you ever see a striker who also takes penalties and free kicks, he’s worth his weight in gold!

Look at relevant stats

The relevant stats for the best FPL forwards are shots per game and xG per 90 minutes. There are no more essential stats than shots for an attacker. Even if the player had tons of touches in the penalty area, that doesn’t mean anything if they don’t result in shots.

You can find shots per game (SpG) from sites like Whoscored. See the image below.

Having a lot of shots is a good indication of two things:

1. The player is active and confident
2. The player gets scoring opportunities

The next most important statistic is the xG per 90. Because xG tells you how good those scoring opportunities were. If you have a lot of long shots and from poor angles, they don’t result in goals.