FPL Gameweek 1 Tips

FPL Gameweek 1 tips are based on our FPL Fixture Difficulty tool. Any xG values mentioned in this article are from the official FPL stats. Note that xGI per 90 minutes means expected goal involvements per 90 minutes, calculated by adding expected goals and assists.

Next, we’ll go through the FPL Gameweek 1 tips team by team, in order of the most expected goals & clean sheet probabilities. These tips don’t include the latest injury information.

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Table of Contents

Captain selection

There will likely be little debate regarding the captain selection – the GW 1 captain will be Mohamed Salah. When we examine our FPL Fixture Difficulty Matrix, we can see that two standout teams emerge at GW1: Liverpool and Tottenham. The rest of the top teams are so far behind in expected goals that they should be considered non-viable options.

Tottenham plays against promoted Burnley. This match certainly has tons of potential. Spurs are expected to improve under the new manager, and they should score several goals on a typical day. However, the team has very few realistic Captain options.

There are too many risky options in midfield in terms of minutes. The only safe bet is Dominic Solanke, but who in their right mind is going to pick him over Salah?

Does Salah have any rivals in Liverpool? I don’t think so. Florian Wirtz is an exciting option, but this will be his first Premier League match. The scoring potential of Salah is much higher. The same goes for any other Liverpool player.

Probably every top manager is going to have Salah in their FPL squad, and they are going to captain him as well. I don’t think there are any realistic alternatives.

Liverpool

Liverpool has the highest expected goals for the first six gameweeks. The opening fixture against Bournemouth is also a fantastic opportunity. Liverpool is a bit behind the best teams in terms of clean sheet probabilities. This is mainly due to the GW 2 fixture against Newcastle away.

RW Salah: An obvious pick despite a price rise. He’s by far the best FPL asset until we see proof of degrading performances. Salah is also on penalties.
AM Wirtz: Wirtz should be a fantastic signing and a regular starter. His 8.5m price tag feels slightly low when compared to players like Palmer and Saka. There is every chance Wirtz will score a ton of FPL points.
CB Van Dijk: A solid option from defense. You know he’ll always play 90 minutes, and VVD also provides occasional attacking returns.
RB Frimpong: Frimpong could be an excellent replacement for Trent AA. He has had 5G+5A, 9G+7A, and 8G+7A in his previous three seasons at Leverkusen. Frimpong appears to be the best defensive option at Liverpool, as he isn’t more expensive than Van Dijk. The risk is that he has to share minutes with Conor Bradley. However, Bradley is injured at the start of the season.

Man City

Manchester City has the second-highest expected goals for the first six gameweeks. They are also second in clean sheet probabilities.

AM Marmoush: Marmoush is 1m more expensive than he was at the end of the last season. However, he’s now a midfielder, which is a big bonus. Marmoush scored seven goals in 14 starts last season and had 0.55 xGI per 90. He looks like a good value at 8.5m, but there is the usual problem with Man City midfielders: there are just too many of them. We can never be 100% sure who is a regular in Pep’s system. For me, Marmoush is the most likely starter among City midfielders.
LB Ait Nouri: Ait Nouri was 5.1m at the end of last season in Wolves, and now he’s 6.0m in Man City. It feels like the price should have been even half a million higher. Ait Nouri had 0.19 xGI per 90 last season, which is fantastic for a defender of a lower-midtable team. If Ait Nouri is a regular starter, he’d be great value at this price.
CB Gvardiol: Gvardiol has been the safe option in City’s defense in recent years. Other defenders come and go, but Gvardiol starts every match and collects tons of xG – despite the fact he hasn’t played the attacking left-back position. Gvardiol had 0.21 xGI per 90 last season. His price was 6.5m when the season ended, which means 6.0m doesn’t feel too expensive.

Haaland will always be the safe option from the City XI. He will start every match and also take penalties. However, I don’t think Haaland is worth the price tag. He can’t get enough points as an attacker to make it worth paying for 14m.

Newcastle

Newcastle has the third-highest expected goals for the first six gameweeks. The clean sheet potential is poor, though.

I don’t think Newcastle players are worth going for at the moment. Isak would generally be the safe option, but a transfer drama is currently surrounding him. If it gets cleared, and the Swede decides to stay, it’ll be different.

The midfield is tricky, too. You now have four wingers competing for two spots, after Newcastle signed Anthony Elanga: Barnes & Gordon on the left, and Elanga & Murphy on the right. Even if your pick starts the game, we can’t be sure that the minutes are there. Plus, if Isak leaves, it’ll make Newcastle wingers less attractive picks as well.

Arsenal

Arsenal has the fourth-highest expected goals for the first six gameweeks. They are also third in clean sheet probabilities.

CB Gabriel: Gabriel has been a popular pick from Arsenal’s defense for many seasons. And for a good reason. He’s the pick all top FPL managers go for, which makes him also a good tactical choice over Saliba. Update: Not a 100 % starter for GW 1.
RW Saka: Bukayo Saka will be scoring lots of FPL points again with Gyökeres now putting his crosses and passes into the net. The problem is that Salah and Palmer seem better choices at the start of the season, which makes it very difficult to fit Saka in.

LB Lewis-Skelly is an excellent option for Gabriel. The problem is that many see a risk that he splits minutes with Calafiori. MLS is half a million cheaper than Gabriel and will also provide a more attacking threat. He’s just more risky at the moment.

CF Gyökeres will be a great pick once the season starts going. He’s just joined the team, which makes me wonder if he starts the season playing 90 minutes. It might be Arsenal starts with Havertz and brings in Gyökeres slowly to the starting XI. Once Gyökeres has cemented his starting XI position and we see he plays close to 90 minutes, he’ll probably be a great pick.

Chelsea

Chelsea has the eighth-highest expected goals for the first six gameweeks, but they have the highest PL clean sheet probabilities.

LB Cucurella: Cucurella is a fantastic pick from Chelsea’s defense. He’s cemented to the starting XI and has a lot of attacking threat as well. I don’t see the reason to pick any other Chelsea defenders unless you need the money.
GK Sanchez: Sanchez is a solid pick for a goalkeeper, considering how good Chelsea’s fixtures are at the start of the season.
AM Palmer: Even if Chelsea is not that high-scoring a team, it’s hard to dismiss Cole Palmer. He’s also a tactical choice, because it looks like almost every single top FPL manager is going to pick him. If you don’t go for Palmer and he scores a ton of points, you’ll fall behind a lot at the start of the season.
CM Enzo: Such an underrated midfielder. He receives surprisingly many attacking returns, yet is often overlooked by most managers. I’ll have Enzo fill one of the 6-7m midfielder slots myself.
CF Joao Pedro: Pedro has had such a good pre-season (+ CWC) that he seems like a safe enough pick to start. He’s not going to play 90 minutes but should have enough minutes to warrant the price.

Tottenham

Tottenham has the fifth-highest expected goals for the first six gameweeks, and they face Burnley at gameweek 1.

LB Udogie: Udogie should be a solid pick from the Spurs’ defense at 4.5m. He’s expected to start, and we know how much he goes forward.
CB Van Den Ven: Van Den Ven is also a 4.5m defender. He can also give you occasional attacking returns, but he’ll also provide defensive contributions.
RW Kudus: Kudus is a summer signing expected to slot right into the starting XI. It’s hard to see Spurs paying so much for Kudus only to bench him. He has tons of FPL potential, and I like Kudus at 6.5m.
CF Solanke: Solanke is a solid pick for an attacker if you don’t go for Haaland. He’s also a tactical pick because most FPL managers have Solanke in their squads. It looks likely he might also be on penalties. A great opening day fixture vs. Burnley might bring in a couple of goals right away! Update: Not a 100 % starter for GW 1.

Nottingham

Nottingham has the sixth-highest expected goals for the first six gameweeks. They are also fourth in clean sheet probabilities.

CB Murillo: Murillo is the defender you go for if you want to maximize defensive contributions. Many top FPL managers are also choosing him for their squads, and I’ll have Murillo as well.
RB Williams: Williams is also a solid pick if you want to save half a million. He provides more attacking threat than Murillo to compensate for fewer defensive contributions.
CM Anderson: Anderson is an option if you are looking for a cheap midfielder who can provide defensive contributions and occasional attacking returns.
CF Wood: I think Chris Wood is a solid pick at the start of the season. Nottingham has good fixtures, and we know what the deal is with Wood: he always plays 90 minutes and is on penalties as well.

There is a risk associated with Nottingham players, as they will be competing in Europe. Whether there will be rotation in the Premier League games or not, only time will tell.

Aston Villa

Nottingham has the seventh-highest expected goals for the first six gameweeks. They are also sixth in clean sheet probabilities.

CB Konsa: Konsa is a solid pick from the Villa defense at 4.5m. He’s also a tactical pick, as I see him in many teams of top FPL managers. I think you can play him in every match from gameweek 2 to 6.
AM Rogers: Morgan Rogers was one of the top value picks last season. Now he’s priced at 7.0m, but I think he’s still worth it. He started every league match, despite Villa competing in Europe, and received numerous attacking returns as well. Update: Not a 100 % starter for GW 1.
CF Watkins: I didn’t like Watkins initially, but it looks like he’ll be in every team of top FPL managers. With Solanke becoming a doubt and Gyökeres a bit of a question mark, Watkins is a solid option – also from the tactical point of view.