Our FPL Gameweek 14 recommendations are drawn from data provided by our Fixture Difficulty tool. All xG numbers mentioned here are taken from the official Fantasy Premier League statistics. Remember that xGI per 90 minutes represents expected goal involvement over a whole match, calculated by combining expected goals and assists into a single metric.
Join our FPL league to follow the squad we’re currently building. Next, we’ll break down our Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 13 advice, team by team, starting with the sides showing the highest expected goals according to recent analytical projections and performance metrics.
Remember: Gameweek 14 is a rare midweek gameweek. It is not uncommon to see players being rotated in such gameweeks.
FPL Gameweek 14 Captain pick
Most FPL managers are still angry about Haaland blanking in gameweek 13 against Leeds—especially those who used their triple captain chip. This time, you should forget Haaland and go against him – just like we recommended at gameweek 12. Fulham away is a tricky fixture, and Manchester City are nowhere near the top of the expected goals rankings.
Arsenal and Chelsea are the prime candidates. They have the highest expected goals and easy opponents. This makes Bukayo Saka the prime candidate. We don’t think other players are worth it because of the minutes risk and lower expected points.
Cole Palmer is nearing his Chelsea return, but we can’t consider him a starter just yet. Enzo Fernandes and Joao Pedro are the number one picks from Chelsea. However, there is a higher chance of rotation in Chelsea, and the expected points for both players are well behind Bukayo Saka.
Hence, the captain’s choice is pretty straightforward this week. Go for Bukayo Saka.
Liverpool
Liverpool has the best fixtures for the next six gameweeks, but it isn’t easy to make solid picks for the midweek round. Even Mo Salah was completely benched against West Ham! Cody Gakpo is the best asset with seven attacking returns and 0.57 xGI per 90. The problem is that Wirtz is back, which will eat into Gakpo’s minutes. Who knows – he might be even rested for Salah. Hence, we don’t recommend any Liverpool attackers here. Ekitike, Isak, Salah, Wirtz, and Szoboszlai are just not worth it based on underlying stats.
Liverpool also has decent clean sheet odds. In our opinion, Virgil is a solid option and an excellent replacement for injured Gabriel. His minutes should be guaranteed also during the busy X-Mas period.
Arsenal
Bukayo Saka is the number one player to target from Arsenal. He has had more than 0.60 xGI in five of the seven previous league matches, and Saka has 0.59 xGI per 90 this season. Eze’s minutes are under threat now with Odegaard coming back. Gyökeres is back, too, but he doesn’t feel worth the price tag. Rice is another solid option from the midfield, who’ll always play and always seems to get DCs.
In Gabriel’s absence, Timber is the best choice from defense. He seems to start every league and Champions League match. Calafiori is getting subbed early all the time and cannot be trusted. Raya is also an excellent long-term option for the goal.
Man City
Haaland is still the number one pick of Manchester City, or any other team, for that matter. He’s also a great player to own during the busy X-mas period. Haaland is never benched and plays high minutes. He blanked in the two previous league matches, but still created 1.67 xG. There are attacking players with similar xG from the whole season.
We don’t feel it’s a good idea to recommend any other City players for this midweek match. It’s impossible to say who will start; will we see the heavily rotated CL team from last week, or something else?
Chelsea
We don’t recommend picking any Chelsea players at gameweek 14. It’s almost guaranteed there will be rotation, and Cole Palmer’s possible return could eat into minutes of Enzo or Joao Pedro. The problem is that the Leeds away fixture is an easy enough one for Maresca to rotate. If they faced another top team, Chelsea was forced to use the full squad.
Brighton
Minteh remains the number one asset from Brighton. He has started every match this season, and Minteh has eight attacking returns with an xGI of 0.35. He is an excellent option at 6.2m. Danny Welbeck is a risky option during the busy X-mas period. He has been traditionally managed at such times, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see him being rested, especially when Tzimas scored vs. Nottingham. Brentford’s Igor is a much better option.
Crystal P
Crystal Palace defenders are still worth going for. You can make your pick from Richards, Guehi, Lacroix, and Munoz, depending on your budget. They all hit a bit different price points. It’s worth noticing, though, that Lacroix seems to be the most reliable on DC. Munoz is for those who are after attacking returns. It’s a great fixture against Burnley away, and we’d be surprised to see any defenders being benched.
It’s a different matter entirely in attack. Sarr got injured against Manchester United, and Mateta played only 60 minutes against Wolves. We don’t recommend purchasing Palace attackers for this fixture. I wouldn’t be selling Mateta either, for sure, but Igor Thiago is a much safer option for the upcoming rounds.
Note: We have sold Sarr for Minteh this week. It seems Sarr will miss a couple of matches before heading to the African Cup of Nations. Since Sarr is 0.5m more expensive than Minteh, you should make this switch now.
Brentford
We have been recommending Igor Thiago for weeks, and he’s becoming increasingly popular. However, if you haven’t brought him in, wait one more gameweek. There’s no point in buying him for GW 14 when Brentford plays Arsenal away.
Man Utd
Manchester United have three solid fixtures next against West Ham, Wolves, and Bournemouth. Bruno Fernandes is definitely the player you want to pick. He has so many different avenues for points, through goals, assists, DCs, bonuses, or set pieces. He has been very unlucky to hit 11 DCs multiple times this season. Bruno is also a good pick for the busy X-Mas period because you know he’ll always start.
You can check the previous FPL tips from here:
Good luck!
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