FPL Gameweek 15 tips are based on our FPL FDR tool. Any xG values mentioned in this article are from the official FPL stats. Note that xGI per 90 minutes means expected goal involvements per 90 minutes, calculated by adding expected goals and assists.
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FPL Gameweek 15 tips for Captain selection
There is no apparent stand-out captain pick for the FPL gameweek 15. All top teams are playing away matches against decent opponents, which means none have over 2.00 expected goals for GW 15.
The stand-out team is Aston Villa, with 2.88 xG against a horrible Southampton defense at home. This means that if you have Ollie Watkins in your team, you should captain him. Villa broke an eight-match winless run midweek, and Watkins got two attacking returns. However, few people have this option.
West Ham has the second-highest expected goals at home vs. Wolves. Hammers suffered a very unlucky defeat against Leicester on Tuesday. They created many chances, and those FPL managers who brought in Jarrod Bowen can consider themselves unfortunate. If you brought in Bowen or Kudus to your squad, those players could be considered captain this week. The Wolves defense is the worst in the league after Southampton, so there is a good chance of attacking returns.
Most FPL managers will be making their choice out of the premier midfielders Saka, Salah, and Palmer. There are fewer reasons to own Haaland every week, who didn’t even score against Nottingham.
I think Cole Palmer is the best option for the captain. Chelsea has the highest xG out of these teams, and Tottenham’s defense has been pretty weak all season. This is also a hot derby, and Chelsea would love to trash their rival, so they will not stop trying to score more.
Everton’s defense is much better than people give them credit for. It’s been traditionally a tight and low-scoring derby, and I wouldn’t bet Salah to get a double-digit score here. It also feels that Salah is so far away from the xG numbers that he must start getting some blanks soon. I would rather captain Saka than Salah this week.
Liverpool
Liverpool had a wild match against Newcastle, which ended in a 3-3 draw. Nobody was shocked to see Salah have double-digit returns again. He was involved in every Liverpool goal and could have even scored more. Trent Alexander-Arnold finally had those attacking returns FPL managers have been waiting to see all season. It’s funny that he had the returns when many managers sold him, and TAA wasn’t even in the starting XI.
Picks: Mo Salah, Joe Gomez, Trent Alexander-Arnold. Salah has been my only pick from Liverpool’s attack the whole season and remains so. There is no reason to take a risk with rotation when FPL is full of great and affordable attacking & midfield options. Besides, it’s not like other Liverpool forwards are getting many attacking returns.
Ibrahima Konate will be out until January, and Joe Gomez is taking his place. The question remains: will Gomez start every match, and if yes, will he play past 60 minutes? Liverpool has a nasty habit of making HT subs for defenders. Gomez is a cheap route to Liverpool’s defense if you feel he’s worth the risk. The Reds have the highest CS probabilities for the next six gameweeks.
Virgil is so expensive now that you should spend half a million extra and go for TAA instead. Alexander-Arnold is now back from an injury and is expected to start. TAA has 0.36 xGI per 90, and only Virgil has scored more points out of all defenders. Some weeks ago, I sold TAA and won’t be looking to bring him in. I think the money is worth more when spread elsewhere.
Man City
City finally ended the horrible run with six defeats and one draw in their last seven matches. In the end, it was a decisive 3-0 win over Nottingham, but when you look at the highlights, you see the defensive issues still exist. Not to mention that Haaland still blanked. He got an assist, though. After a long absence, Kevin De Bruyne returned to the starting XI and got two attacking returns. Doku also started his first match since October and got two attacking returns.
Picks: None. I don’t think any City players are worth the price right now. The defense still looks horrible despite the fact they kept a clean sheet. I wouldn’t be shocked if Gvardiol was benched again, for example. Since Ruben Dias returned from injury with everyone else, there is a massive rotation risk over Christmas.
The Man City midfield has always had a rotation issue, which will be even worse over the busy Christmas period. With Doku and KDB returning from injury, there will be more room for player rotation than earlier. It’s just a minefield. I doubt anyone is seriously considering bringing in Haaland, either. I think City is a team to avoid until January, at least.
Chelsea
Chelsea trashed poor Southampton 5-1 away in the midweek round. Many FPL managers were annoyed to see Levi Colwill and Nicolas Jackson be the rotated players. Cole Palmer started, fortunately, and he scored a goal. Since Palmer was a popular captain pick, FPL managers weren’t happy to see him make just one attacking return when Salah got three simultaneously.
Picks: Robert Sanchez, Levi Colwill, Nicolas Jackson, Cole Palmer. The Southampton match is out of the way, but Chelsea fixtures remain good. If you don’t have Palmer and Jackson on your team, you should bring them in. Palmer had a massive 1.82 xGI vs. Southampton, and he has 0.80 xGI per 90 from the entire season. Only Salah and Haaland have done better but are also much more expensive.
We can say that Jackson is a rotation risk for the X-mas period. Nkunku is a great finisher and scored against Southampton too. However, I don’t think you can fully guarantee that any player will start every match. Jackson is the first-choice man who I’d expect to start three out of four Christmas-time matches.
GW 15 is not the best time to bring in a Chelsea defender because of the Spurs fixture. Hence, you should ideally postpone this transfer for one week. I was surprised to see Colwill be benched, but I’ll stick with him as a pick. He looks like the safest option, and it doesn’t make sense to pay half a million more for Cucurella because his xG numbers don’t show that he’d be much more involved in an attack. Goalie Robert Sanchez is also a good pick for the next several months.
Arsenal
Arsenal took a routine win over Manchester United at home. Gunners scored both goals from corners and could have easily had more since they looked extremely dangerous from set pieces. Those who took a chance with Timber were rewarded. He has been close to scoring a goal and got deservedly one. It wasn’t enjoyable to see Gabriel miss the game. He had a minor injury but was expected to play anyway. Saka and Odegaard had a rare blank after a string of attacking returns.
Picks: David Raya, Jurrien Timber, Gabriel, Bukayo Saka. I’ve written about Arsenal’s defense for weeks now, and they kept a second clean sheet in the third match. Arsenal’s clean sheet probabilities are right up there with Liverpool’s. Raya is a great long-term pick for goal. If you want defense, paying extra for Gabriel’s attacking threat makes sense—even if Saliba scored a goal, too. Timber is a cheaper option and carries a bit more rotation risk.
I have often written that Saka provides the best value for all premium midfielders. He has 0.74 xGI per 90, and Saka has more FPL points than Haaland this season. Saka has only 6 points less than Palmer but costs 0.6M less. Everyone should have Saka, Palmer, and Salah in your team, not Haaland.
Since this is the recommendation, I don’t think there is room for a semi-expensive midfielder like Odegaard. He has 0.54 xGI per 90, which is excellent, but many much cheaper midfielders reach 0.35-0.45 xGI per 90, which gives you several millions more to spend elsewhere. I’d instead go for a 5.5-6.5M midfielder and spend more on defense.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa ended their long winless run against Brentford. It was a good performance and a deserved win. One of our picks, Morgan Rogers, opened the scoring. Ollie Watkins also got two attacking returns from the match.
Picks: Morgan Rogers. Rogers has been my number-one pick from Villa for the entire season. Seeing Rogers score and get a bonus point on top was gratifying. He got 0.58 xGI from the Brentford match, the third-highest number this season. Roger has 0.38 xGI per 90, which is solid, considering he still costs just 5.3M.
Rogers could be a great punt for the Villa match! However, three rough fixtures follow, and you might consider benching him. Hence, I don’t think it’s worth buying Ollie Watkins. Watkins has 0.73 xGI per 90, among the best for all attackers. However, he is also the most expensive attacker behind Haaland. Wood, Cunhan, and Jackson have all scored more FPL points than Watkins despite a much lower price. I don’t see Watkins being worth the price tag.
Manchester Utd
Manchester United lost the first match under new manager Ruben Amorim. They never stood a chance at Emirates and looked incredibly shaky in defense. Amorim also rotated quite a bit in the midfield. It seems like his optimal XI is beginning to form.
Picks: Noussair Mazraoui. Manchester United has the sixth-highest clean sheet probabilities. They have four excellent matches coming up in the next five gameweeks. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see several clean sheets. Hence, the question is: which defender should you pick?
Mazaraoui, De Ligt, and Dalot are the safe starters. Dalot plays as a wing-back, but it doesn’t show in his xGI numbers. All these players have between 0.1 and 0.13 xGI per 90, meaning the differences are minimal. All these players have one attacking return this season. The logical decision is to go for the cheapest one, Mazraoui.
Some people consider Bruno Fernandes, but I see no reason to pick him. He is finally getting some attacking returns, but the fixtures are not good enough. Manchester United is simply one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league. You want to have defenders from teams like this. Amad Diallo is a more interesting punt option. He costs just 5.0M and has 0.28 xGI per 90. Amada has six attacking returns from 2.2 xGI, which means he has overachieved wildly. I’d much rather own players like Morgan Rogers.
Tottenham
Tottenham’s midweek match against Bournemouth was weak. Spurs lost 0-1 and could have easily conceded more goals. Dominic Solanke continued his worrying form, with just 0.22 xGI and blanking in his fourth consecutive match.
Picks: None. I don’t think this is a time to pick any Spurs players. For starters, defenders are out of the question, as I have written many times. The Spurs defense has never been solid, and now it’s poor with all their injuries. Pedro Porro has 0.20 xGI per 90, which is great for a defender, but it’s not good enough to warrant the poor CS probabilities. You get much more out of many 4.5-5.0 priced defenders.
Brennan Johnson has been my value pick from this Spurs team for many weeks. Johnson still has 0.62 xGI per 90, almost at the premium midfielders level. This is a fantastic number for a 6.7M midfielder with eight attacking returns (6G, 2A) so far. However, Spurs face Chelsea and Liverpool at home and Nottingham away in the next four. These are very tough matches for attackers. Yes, they play Southampton away in GW 16, but I don’t think it’s enough. Instead, you’d consider players like Mitoma or Bowen for the Christmas period.
Bournemouth
Bournemouth had a great midweek match against Spurs, which ended in a deserved 1-0 victory. CB Huijsen scored the only goal from a Tavernier corner. Bournemouth attack keeps on looking very lively.
Picks: Milos Kerkez, Antoine Semenyo, Marcus Tavernier, Evanilson. Bournemouth has a good run of fixtures coming up. They face Ipswich and West Ham next, followed by Man Utd, Palace, Fulham, and Everton. Not a single tough match is on the horizon. Bournemouth’s clean sheet probabilities are the fifth highest of all teams. This means you should also consider one of their defenders.
I think Kerkez is the one to pick. He already has the 0.11 xGI per 90 with three attacking returns (1G, 2A). Senesi has 0.13 xGI per 90, but most of this comes from a single match against Brentford. His attacking threat comes from corners, while Kerkez goes forward in attacks and has a better chance for assists. Kerkez has started the previous 12 Bournemouth matches.
There are plenty of attack options. Semenyo and Tavernier have very similar xGI numbers and prices. Semenyo is a slightly better choice, but he also costs more. As we saw against Bournemouth, Tavernier has set-piece duties, which can lead to attacking returns. Tavernier at 5.5M and Semenyo at 5.7M are great budget options for your midfield for this good run of fixtures. Kluivert is a no-go; his xGI comes mainly from a single match where he took three penalties (because Semenyo missed the game).
Evanilson is an interesting option in attack. He has 0.60 xGI per 90, which is fantastic for a 6.0M striker. When you look at Bournemouth highlights, it seems he’s close to scoring or getting a penalty in every match. He has started 11 of 12 previous Bournemouth matches and got eight (4G, 4A) attacking returns in the last nine games.
You can check the previous FPL tips from here:
Good luck!
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