FPL Gameweek 16 tips are based on our FPL Fixture Difficulty tool. Any xG values mentioned in this article are from the official FPL stats. Note that xGI per 90 minutes means expected goal involvements per 90 minutes, calculated by adding expected goals and assists.
Join our FPL league here to see what kind of team we are building! Next, we’ll go through Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 16 tips team by team in order by the most expected goals.
FPL Mystery Chip was revealed
The FPL Mystery Chip was revealed this week! The new chip is called the FPL Assistant Manager chip. It will be available from gameweek 24 onwards. Check our guide for how to use it and what strategies to consider.
We will be giving tips for using the Assistant Manager chip from gameweek 24 onward.
FPL Gameweek 16 tips for Captain selection
The Captain selection will be between Mo Salah and Cole Palmer. Both have very promising home matches against midtable teams. Liverpool’s expected goals (2.47) are slightly lower than Chelsea’s (2.77), but I don’t think the difference is so big that it makes the choice obvious.
Palmer had a dry spell between gameweeks 7 and 12 with just one attacking return. However, he’s back in great form now. Six attacking returns in the previous three matches and a massive 18-point haul against Tottenham.
Salah didn’t play at GW 15, so we don’t have his latest numbers from this weekend. However, he is in fantastic form. Salah has returned at least nine points in seven consecutive gameweeks. So far, he has 21 attacking returns (13G, 8A) this season. I can’t argue against anyone captaining Salah.
I will trust my FPL FDR tool and go for Palmer. Brentford has been horrible on travels, and I trust Fulham much more to keep the game tight and low-scoring. Surely, Salah can’t have these double-digit returns forever…?
Arsenal
Arsenal had a bad day in the office vs. Fulham. The Gunners conceded an early goal and spent the rest of the game chasing the win. Bukayo Saka scored a late second goal, which VAR ruled out. Saliba scored in the second consecutive match. Gabriel missed again due to injury, and Saka blanked, frustrating many FPL managers.
Picks: David Raya, Gabriel, Jurrien Timber, Bukayo Saka. Arsenal has the best clean sheet probabilities in the next six matches. The next four games especially look promising. Most top FPL managers already have two Arsenal defensive picks with Saka, which is an excellent idea for the future.
Gabriel was expected to play already at midweek but missed both games this week. However, the injury didn’t seem serious, so I expect him to return. When Gabriel and Saliba play, Gabriel is likelier to score from set pieces. Timber is a great budget pick if you are sure he won’t lose minutes to Partey or other defenders.
Saka is the player you should choose from Arsenal’s attack. Odegaard is the other player getting attacking returns, but he’s too expensive. Most FPL managers want to have Saka, Salah, and Palmer, which leaves little room for players at Odegaard’s price point. Despite playing two poor matches in a row where he blanked, Saka has 0.69 xGI per 90 and sixteen attacking returns (5G, 11A). I wouldn’t worry about him.
Liverpool
Since the Merseyside derby was postponed due to poor weather, we don’t have any information from Gameweek 15.
Picks: Trent Alexander-Arnold, Joe Gomez, Mo Salah. Many FPL managers are keen to bring back Trent Alexander-Arnold. This is not a bad idea because Liverpool’s upcoming fixtures look great. Liverpool’s expected goals are the highest of all teams and second on clean sheet probabilities. The home match vs. Fulham in gameweek 16 has nice potential for a clean sheet.
TAA has had a disappointing season with attacking returns, but he still has the most points of all defenders after Virgil. He is also third in points per match rankings, right behind Disasi and Ashely Young. He has 0.36 xGI per 90, which is fantastic for a defender. I don’t think paying 6.4M for Virgil makes sense when you can have Trent with half a million more. Joe Gomez is a great budget defender. He’s the first-choice replacement for injured Konate, but he’ll risk losing minutes to Quansah. If you strongly believe Gomez will start all matches, go for him.
Mo Salah is still the only attacking player worth picking from Liverpool, especially now that we are entering the busy Christmas period. You can never be sure which of the other forwards starts or if they even play more than 70 minutes. There are so many great midfield and attacking options that it makes no sense to gamble with Liverpool players.
Chelsea
Chelsea had a fantastic victory over London rivals Tottenham. The Blues were two goals down after 11 minutes but turned the match around. Cole Palmer scored two penalty goals and was rewarded with one assist, which means 36 points for those who captained him. You should have also done this if you read our GW 15 tips! Left-back Cucurella had a second assist in three games. We also have to mention Enzo, who scored again!
Picks: Robert Sanchez, Levi Colwill, Enzo, Cole Palmer, Nicolas Jackson. Chelsea is third-best in expected goals and clean sheet probabilities in the upcoming six gameweeks. You should have three Chelsea players on your team now: one defender/goalie and two attacking players.
Robert Sanchez is a good long-term option for goal. There is a slight rotation risk, though. We also saw Colwill rotated in the midweek match, which means they might also miss one of the busy Christmas period games. I still consider both solid options, so I’m not worrying about rotation risk. Please don’t jump into Cucurella, who had 0.08 and 0.03 xGI in those matches where he had an assist. Levi Colwill gives you an equal attacking threat with a lower price.
Cole Palmer is a must-have player in your FPL team. He’s the only one who might match Salah’s score this season. They never miss a match and have set-piece duties, too. Nicolas Jackson is also a great option in an attack, even though his price has already risen to 8.2M. He has 0.63 xGI per 90 on the ballpark with other expensive attackers, such as Isak and Watkins.
Enzo is difficult because most FPL managers have already used their three Chelsea slots. I would never sell Palmer, and I think it’s a big mistake to sell Jacksn, too, before the home match vs. Brentford. If you are desperate to bring in Enzo, I would rather sacrifice Chelsea’s defense. Enzo has six attacking returns (3G, 3A) in five matches and 0.36 xGI per 90. He costs just 4.9M, making him a fantastic option… if he keeps delivering those attacking returns.
The problem is that Enzo plays deep in the midfield, and he had only five attacking returns (3G and 2A) in the entire previous season. The season before, just two attacking returns (0G, 2A). Considering his price, Enzo has a hot run and a great xGI number, but I think he’s in a sizzling run now that doesn’t last. I’m not going to buy him myself.
Man City
Manchester City had a hard-fought draw against Crystal Palace. City fell behind early on after some poor defending, but they managed to come back eventually. Rico Lewis scored a goal to delight many FPL managers who kept faith in him, but the man ruined most of this score (and possible bonus points) with a later red card. Haaland scored, but it’s simply too little too late.
Picks: None. Manchester City has pretty decent clean sheet probabilities from now on. But what’s the point of picking players from a team that is defending poorly? Not to mention, you have a constant rotation risk to worry about. Gvardiol has 0.26 xGI per 90, which is very good for a defender. However, it costs 6.2 million, and it doesn’t look like City will keep many clean sheets. I’d much rather spend this money on Arsenal or Liverpool defenders.
Many FPL managers have been talking about bringing in Kevin De Bruyne. Admittedly, he has 0.85 xGI per 90, which is in the same ballpark as Salah, Saka, and Palmer. However, he costs 9.5M, making it very difficult (= impossible) to fit him in with these three premiums. Do you want to get rid of Saka or Palmer for KDB? We also know that he won’t start all the games during Christmas. There is too much rotation risk and no room on your team.
Erling Haaland is no longer a realistic option. He’d have to get two attacking returns in every game to warrant the price. It’s simply not enough. The money is much better spent elsewhere.
Fulham
Fulham grabbed a valuable point from Arsenal in the London derby despite massively losing xG in the match. They also escaped a late Arsenal goal that was ruled out as offside. Raul Jimenez scored the only goal, his first in seven games. It’s too little too late, as most FPL managers have already transferred him out.
Picks: Fulham plays away to Liverpool at GW 16, so you shouldn’t bring any Fulham players in this week. However, we have already put an alert in place because this team has a fantastic schedule from GW 17 onwards. In the next three home games, Fulham will face Southampton, Bournemouth, and Ipswich. We’ll discuss Fulham players more next week when it makes sense to start transferring them.
Tottenham
Tottenham suffered a horrible derby day defeat against Chelsea. They were cruising to a victory after scoring two goals in 11 minutes. But then, it all fell apart in the second half. Many FPL managers were happy to see Solanke score and Porro and Johnson get an assist. Tottenham had Van Den Ven and Romero back in central defense but to no avail. Romero was also forced out after 15 minutes because of an injury.
Picks: Brennan Johnson. I have mentioned Johnson almost every week, and I see no reason why he wouldn’t be a good pick. Tottenham are sixth in expected goals for the next six gameweeks and face Southampton at GW 16. Johnson has nine attacking returns (6G, 3A) and 0.62 xGI per 90. These are great numbers for a 6.7M midfielder. When you look at Johnson’s stats, I don’t see any reason to go for Kulusevski or Son.
Maddison is the only other potential pick. He has even 0.76 xGI per 90, but he gets constantly rotated. Maddison also costs 7.6M, which means an additional 0.9M compared to Brennan Johnson. I’d play it safe and save that money.
How about Dominic Solanke? After the Chelsea match, he has eight attacking returns (5G, 3A) and 0.63 xGI per 90. He gives you exactly what Brennan Johnson does but at a higher transfer fee (7.6M). I have Solanke myself, but I wouldn’t buy him. I think Solanke is too volatile in his performances. He is invisible in most games and then gives you returns in some matches. There are so many good attacking options in the 6M to 8M price range that I wouldn’t spend that money on Solanke. I will sell Solanke when I don’t have more pressing issues.
Bournemouth
Bournemouth wrapped up a fantastic week with a win over Ipswich. Cherries defeated Wolves 4-2, Spurs 1-0, and Ipswich 2-1 in eight days. Ouattara Django was the hero against Ipswich, scoring the winning goal deep in injury time.
Picks: Milos Kerkez. Bournemouth is now done with the great Ipswich fixture, but they are still seventh in the clean-sheet probabilities. Seeing a Bournemouth clean sheet in the following five matches wouldn’t be a shock. At GW 16, they play West Ham at home, which is the best fixture. Left-back Milos Kerkez is an excellent pick at 4.6M. He has three attacking returns and 0.11 xGI per 90 for the season.
Many FPL managers will also focus on Bournemouth’s attack, but that time has passed since the Ipswich game. Bournemouth is ranked 15th in expected goals for the upcoming six matches. This is where the Fixture Difficulty tool shines. Many managers will look at teams like Fulham and Everton and consider them “easy matches.” But those are low-scoring opponents, which means low xG. The value is now in Bournemouth’s defense.
Newcastle
Newcastle played a wild match against Brentford and lost 2-4. Alexander Isak extended his fantastic scoring streak by scoring one of the goals.
Picks: Lewis Hall, Alexander Isak. Newcastle has three favorable fixtures: Leicester, Ipswich, and Aston Villa. Two tough away matches and a home match vs. Wolves follow these. There is a good chance to get at least two clean sheets from this run. The Magpies’ defense is almost cemented to Livramento, Hall, Burn, and Schär. Hall and Schär are the ones with any attacking threat. Hall has 0.15 xGI and Schär 0.16 xGI per 90 minutes. Hall is an obvious choice at 4.4M since Schär costs a million more.
In attack, it’s a question of whether to go for Anthony Gordon. It must be said that Gordon has 0.59 xGI per 90, which is fantastic for a 7.2M midfielder. He has 5.0 xG from this season with just three goals, which means he’s been unlucky. I don’t like Gordon because there is so much competition for two midfield slots you have after premium ones, and you most likely want to go for 5.0-6.0M priced players to save money.
We have to consider Alexander Isak as a pick. He wasn’t that great earlier this season but is in great form now. Isak has nine attacking returns (6G, 3A) this season with 0.61 xGI per 90. Ollie Watkins (9.0M) has ten returns (7G, 3A) and 0.78 xGI per 90. Nicolas Jackson (8.2M) has twelve returns (8G, 4A) and 0.64 xGI per 90. I don’t think there is a massive difference between Isak and other expensive forwards. He’s not a bad pick if you can afford him. However, players like Evanilson at 6.1M and Joao Pedro at 5.9M offer much better value.
You can check the previous FPL tips from here:
Good luck!
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