FPL gameweek 3 tips

the best fantasy premier league forwards

Here are FPL gameweek 3 tips based on the FPL algorithm numbers. Remember that the algorithm does not count in injuries. You’d be extra careful with teams like Arsenal, because Alexis Sanchez is still likely out.

Remember also to check the FPL fixture tracker from here!

Attacking potential

Tottenham stands out at GW 3 with massive advantage compared to any other team. Spurs are among the top teams in the league and facing one of the weakest travelers. We have all read about Harry Kane’s August curse, but I’d forget that nonsense here. Kane has been lively so far and he could have easily scored in both of the opening matches. Tottenham has such advantage in expected goals this week I’d definitely keep faith on good old ‘Arry. I like Eriksen even more, though. The Dane has delivered attacking returns in 11 of 13 previous matches he has started and picked up 19 fantasy points this season as well. I think you’d have both and make either one of them your captain. The added bonus comes from fixtures; if you look at our fixture tracker you’ll see that Spurs have the best goal scoring potential out of all teams in the next 6 gameweeks.

Manchester City come second and many are thinking to dump KDB and/or Gabriel Jesus. I’d hold onto KDB or possibly trade him to David Silva, who seems to be more in the game. Gabriel Jesus could be risky, since he’s been subbed out in both games and the replacement Sterling scored against Everton as well. Wouldn’t be shocked to see Jesus benched in this one.

Manchester United come third and this is the team everyone’s talking about. They have scored’a’plenty so far and Lukaku has delivered to those who have captained him. I still don’t prefer United players since their potential is lower compared to alternatives mentioned above. Not only at GW3 but especially when you look at fixtures ahead. However, due to the nature of the game you might want to pick Mou’s men just to keep up with your rivals in case players like Pogba and Lukaku keep getting attacking returns.

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Defensive potential

Tottenham is also the stand-out team defensively this week. The great thing is Spurs have also other very suitable fixtures coming up, like home matches against Swansea and Bournemouth. If you are thinking of Spurs defenders, this is definitely a good time to jump on that train. Picking Kane and Eriksen would still leave room for one more player. Ben Davies looks like the best choice of the back four currently. He has 2G + 3A in the previous 9 matches he has started. Davies has also scored this season already and picked up 16 FPL points from the opening two matches.

I have mentioned Manchester United defense in GW1 and GW2 preview and it’s worth repeating the rap. The best potential (in comparison to other teams) is definitely in defense and United haven’t failed so far. Two solid clean sheets in two matches and now they aim to get third. It seems like the defense line has been cemented to Valencia-Bailly-Jones-Blind and Bailly is the only one who has given any attacking returns in ages. I wouldn’t recommend that option though, since he has been selected by so many players. But overall, I’d recommend to have at least two defenders (or DDG+DF) from Man United since they keep on having the best defensive potential in the league.

WBA is the third team and there are many who already have at least Hegazi in their defense. Albion lock horns with Stoke, who have created very little in their opening matches. Potters seem to have found some new attacking energy when signing Jese, who scored against Arsenal. I wouldn’t put much weight on that, though. WBA have been really solid defensively and I expect them to keep 3rd clean sheet in a row. Albion keep on having good fixtures and they meet Brighton and West Ham (at home) in the next rounds. You’d stick to WBA defenders for now. Hegazi is obviously the safe option, since so many players have him. Dawson and Nyom offer a great differential choice because the FPL potential is practically identical.

FPL gameweek 3: the best clean sheet candidates

  1. Tottenham: 57% probability for clean sheet
  2. Man Utd: 49%
  3. WBA: 46%

FPL gameweek 3: the highest expected goals

  1. Tottenham: expected to score 2.65 goals this round
  2. Man City: 2.04
  3. Man Utd: 1.98

FPL Gameweek 3: expected goals for each match

Bournemouth-Man City0.932.0413%40%
Crystal P-Swansea1.360.8144%26%
Newcastle-West Ham1.281.1731%28%
Man Utd-Leicester1.980.7249%14%

xG_H = expected goals for the home team
xG_A = expected goals for the away team

CS_H = clean sheet probability for the home team
CS_A = clean sheet probability for the home team

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Check out the historical stats of the algorithm from here.

Image credit: CosminIftode / Shutterstock.com

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