FPL tips for gameweek 13

Enjoy our FPL tips for gameweek 13, which are based on predictions of the FPL algorithm. These Fantasy Premier League tips focus on the next gameweek without forgetting the big picture. The future potential of each player is based on our unique FPL fixture tracker. This matrix shows expected goals and clean sheet probabilities precisely for each team.

Note: be careful with Everton, West Ham and West Brom at the moment. The algorithm does not count in any (positive or negative) changes their recent manager changes might cause. Maybe the teams improve or become higher/lower scoring. If big changes will happen, algorithm values will be updated quickly to reflect the current state of the team(s).

Attacking potential

Tottenham has the highest attacking potential of all teams at GW 13. However, the differences between Spurs and the Manchester teams are rather marginal. Spurs have failed badly in their previous Premier League matches. They have scored only once against Gunners, Palace and Manchester United all put together. Needless to say Harry Kane has blanked in each match. The England international had not scored in a whole month before breaking this “curse” in the Champions League match against Dortmund.

This might be a much-needed boost for the PL too, where Spurs have a very suitable home fixture against WBA. The visitors have been the worst team in PL for quite some time and even sacked Tony Pulis after the latest defeat. Spurs should pile more misery on WBA and the next four fixtures at GW14-GW17 look also promising. If you still have Harry Kane in your team, I wouldn’t toss him out… just yet.

Manchester City are kings once more when we look at the longer perspective from the FPL fixture tracker. Their next fixtures are fantastic: Huddersfield (a), Southampton (h) and West Ham (h). Expected goals go through the roof especially in the Hammers match. Fair warning again regarding Pep’s rotation, though. Aguero was rested at weekend and he started in the CL matches against Feyenoord. It’s very likely we’ll see Gariel Jesus in the XI vs Huddersfield. I’ve said this before and I say it again: KDB and David Silva are the players to choose if you don’t want to gamble.

Manchester United have rarely been among the highest-scoring teams but now they are in the top three. It’s a very interesting team now since Paul Pogba returned from a long injury at GW 12. Pogba scored one and assisted one when United trashed Newcastle 4-1 at home. He was out 12 matches but looks like a popular pick again. United fixtures aren’t the best, though. After meeting Brighton and Watford they face Arsenal (a) and local rivals City (h). It’s very well known Mourinho likes to play for 0-0 in these top matches, so don’t expect much attacking returns. If you’re interested in Pogba, I recommend to wait until GW17.


Defensive potential

Manchester United were supposed to bring another solid clean sheet last week. That idea didn’t live too long, since Red Devils conceded early against Newcastle – thanks to CB Lindelof. United are the most likely clean sheet holders once more when meeting weak Brighton at home. Even if Pascal Gross has shown dangerous form lately, this CS should be in the bag almost two times in three attempts. United have lots of defensive potential in the fixture tracker as well, even though they have two difficult games coming up at GW15-16. I think it’s still a good idea to bring in a United defender now and rather wait with attackers. The choice should be a bit easier now since Phil Jones is 100% out and Bailly also 50-50. Smalling should be a safe starter with Valencia.

Spurs come second on this list with a 60% CS probability. FPL managers’ favorite Ben Davies is due a clean sheet for sure? He hasn’t had one in FPL in almost two months now (9/30). Unfortunately for many FPL managers, he wasn’t in the starting XI in the recent Palace match, which produced a CS for the rest of the team. Spurs fixtures look good in the big picture as well what comes to CS potential. If you are a bit unsure with Kane, it’s definitely not a bad idea to trust Davies instead.

One team worth noticing is Bournemouth. I mentioned Cherries also a week ago, and they rewarded FPL managers with a fantastic 4-0 win over Huddersfield. Bournemouth is the best performing team in the Premier League right now if we compare the supremacy estimated and actually gained in the match (through xG). Fixture tracker shows they still have four solid fixtures coming up before meeting Liverpool and Manchester City.

Everton are also higher than ever in the clean sheet potential. Toffees don’t have a single CS from Premier League matches since the opening day of the season. Recent weeks and manager changes have produced goals at least. Hopefully the latest results would also increase confidence in the defense. Everton are having a long run of favorable fixtures, where you can expect several clean sheets coming. You’d consider jumping into the good old Leighton Baines train, which has been quite empty for a long time. Baines has scored in two consecutive matches and both from the penalty spot. This means he has returned to spot kick duties!

FPL gameweek 13: the best clean sheet candidates

  1. Man Utd: 64% probability for clean sheet
  2. Spurs: 60%
  3. Man City: 53%

FPL gameweek 13: the highest expected goals

  1. Spurs: expected to score 2.22 goals this round
  2. Manchester City: 2.10
  3. Manchester United: 2.05

FPL Gameweek 13: expected goals for each match

West Ham-Leicester1.651.5521%19%
Crystal Palace-Stoke1.371.1631%26%
Man Utd-Brighton2.060.4564% 13%
Spurs-West Brom2.220.5160%11%
Huddersfield-Man City0.632.1012%53%

xG_H = expected goals for the home team
xG_A = expected goals for the away team

CS_H = clean sheet probability for the home team
CS_A = clean sheet probability for the home team

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Check out the historical stats of the algorithm from here.

Image credit: Shutterstock.com

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