Here, you can find Premier League clean sheet odds for the next six gameweeks. Clean sheet odds are shown as a decimal number, which refers to the clean sheet probability. For example, 0.35 means a 35 % probability for a clean sheet. Use these probabilities to improve your FPL rankings!
To get the betting odds (decimal), use the formula 1 / CS probability. For example, 1 / 0.35 = 2.86. If the clean sheet probability is 0.35, you’d need at least 2.86 odds to back it.
Clean Sheet Odds: How Are They Calculated?
Clean sheet odds are derived from estimating how likely a team is to concede zero goals in a match. Our modeling begins by calculating expected goals (xG) for and against each team. For example, one team might average 2.05 xG for and 1.05 xG against. A poor team might have 0.90 goals for and 1.80 against. By comparing these values across both teams in a fixture, we can simulate outcomes and determine how often the opponent fails to score.
Clean sheet odds are adjusted based on actual goal trends to improve accuracy. If a team consistently plays in low-scoring matches, its xG values might be revised downward. Conversely, increasing attacking output would push the xG value higher.
Home advantage is another essential factor. Based on historical data, home teams tend to perform better defensively, and this influence is built into the model. If a team is trending toward more “underish” results—tight games with fewer goals—this can further increase their projected clean sheet odds.
By blending statistical inputs with dynamic adjustments, the model can offer realistic probabilities for weekly clean sheets. This is critical for FPL managers who want to make data-informed decisions about their defensive assets.
FPL clean sheet odds: How do you use them, and why are they essential?
FPL clean sheet odds indicate the likelihood of a team not conceding a goal in a given match. These odds are crucial when selecting defenders and goalkeepers, as a clean sheet provides valuable points in FPL: 4 points for goalkeepers and defenders, with an additional 1 point for midfielders.
Use our FPL clean sheet odds to improve your FPL performance! Our FPL team reached the 477K rank in the 2024/2025 season, which means you’d beat ~96% of FPL players by using these probabilities.
How to use FPL clean sheet odds
- Transfer Decisions: Use odds to target defenders from teams most likely to keep a clean sheet that gameweek.
- Bench Order: Rank substitutes based on the defensive potential shown by clean sheet odds.
- Captaincy for Defenders: Rare but relevant in double gameweeks—clean sheet odds can tip the scale if you’re captaining a premium defender.
- Wildcard Planning: To build a stronger defensive rotation, identify longer-term fixtures with high clean sheet potential.
Over 11.6 million FPL managers are competing against each other. You can’t longer pick players based on feelings because the competition is so tough. More data is needed. And this is where our FPL clean sheet odds become helpful.
Why are Premier League clean sheet odds essential?
- Data-driven insight: They aggregate expert analysis, team news, and form, helping you bypass subjective guesswork.
- Maximizing points: Clean sheets often provide the most significant points for defenders, especially those without attacking returns.
- Differentials: Spotting under-the-radar teams with strong defensive odds can give you an edge over casual players.
Tracking clean sheet odds weekly (e.g., via betting sites or FPL analytics tools) can turn a casual strategy into a consistently competitive one.
Check also our FPL Fixture Difficulty Ratings page. This is great for FPL managers because it also shows the expected goals for each team.