The FPL Fixture Difficulty Rating 2026/27 is a powerful tool for every Fantasy Premier League manager. Our FPL FDR shows expected goals and clean-sheet probabilities for all teams over the next six gameweeks.
- 🔄 Team ratings are updated every two gameweeks
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FPL Fixture Difficulty Ratings for Expected Goals
The FPL Fixture Difficulty Rating for expected goals is a matrix that shows the goals each Premier League team is expected to score over the next six gameweeks. Use this tool to decide which teams you’d pick your attacking players from.
FPL FDR: Expected Goals
Note: In double gameweeks, expected goals are the sum of the expected goals for the two matches. MCI, CRY, ARS, and WOL won’t have a match at GW 31.
FPL Fixture Difficulty Ratings for Clean Sheets
The FPL Fixture Difficulty Rating for clean sheets is a matrix that shows the clean-sheet probabilities for each Premier League team over the next six gameweeks. For example, the number 0.30 represents a 30% probability. Use this tool to determine which teams to select for your defensive players.
FPL FDR: Clean Sheets
Note: In double gameweeks, the probability is the team’s chance of at least one clean sheet. MCI, CRY, ARS, and WOL won’t have a match at GW 31.
What is the FPL Fixture Difficulty Rating?
The FPL Fixture Difficulty Rating is a tool for FPL managers that helps to judge the potential of upcoming fixtures. This tool, also called the FPL Fixture Difficulty Planner, consists of two matrices:
- Fixture Difficulty Ratings for expected goals (xG)
- Fixture Difficulty Ratings for clean sheets (CS)
The first matrix shows the expected goals for each Premier League team for the next six matches. The data is sorted by expected goals in descending order, placing teams with the best goal-scoring potential at the top of the list. These fixture difficulty ratings are used to identify the best FPL midfielders and forwards for upcoming gameweeks.
The second matrix shows the clean sheet probabilities for each Premier League team for the next six matches. The data is sorted by clean-sheet probability in descending order, with the teams with the highest probabilities listed at the top. These fixture difficulty ratings are used to identify the best FPL defenders and goalkeepers.
The more goals a team is expected to score, the more FPL points the attacking players should have. Alternatively, the higher the clean sheet probability is, the more points you can expect from defenders and goalkeepers.
Next, we will explain how these fixture difficulty ratings are determined and why our FPL difficulty planner is superior to the official FPL Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) tool.
How are the FPL Fixture Difficulty Ratings made?
Allfantasytips.com makes FPL fixture difficulty ratings. These ratings are 100 % unique and not influenced by the official FPL ratings, betting odds, or any other data. This is what makes the tool so helpful and gives you an edge. If you use the same FPL FDR tool as everyone else, you’ll also make the same mistakes.
Our FPL difficulty planner is based on each Premier League team’s xG rating. The xG rating is based on expected goals scored and conceded. For example:
- A top team could have an xG rating of 1.90 for and 1.30 against (= 3.20 goals total).
- A midtable team could have an xG rating of 1.50 for and 1.40 against (= 2.90 goals total).
- A poor team could have an xG rating of 1.10 for and 1.70 against (=2.80 goals total).
The difference between the xG for and against describes how good the team is. In the example above, the top team would be +0.60 goals (1.90 minus 1.30), the midtable team would be +0.10 goals (1.50 minus 1.40), and the poor team would be -0.60 goals (1.10 minus 1.70). The best teams in the Premier League typically have a rating of +1.20 to +1.50 goals, while the bottom teams have similar ratings in the opposite direction.
How are these ratings made, then? The ratings are based on historical data. We use the previous 50, 40, 30, 20, and 15 Premier League matches to determine the rating. For promoted teams with little history, we use their available data.
The rating is updated every two weeks, but there is a limit on how much it can change. We strive to balance the changes so that necessary adjustments are made. Still, we recognize that it typically takes considerable time for team strengths and goal amounts to change significantly.
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How To Use the FPL Fixtures Difficulty Tool?
Using this FPL Fixtures Difficulty Tool is very easy. The idea is to avoid finding teams that are significantly higher or lower in the matrix than their actual ratings (and vice versa).
For example, if Arsenal is the second-best team in the league but only fourth or fifth in expected goals, the fixtures are not optimal. On the other hand, if Brentford is ranked 10th-12th but sixth in the expected-goals matrix, the fixtures are favorable.
The same goes for clean sheets. If a midtable team is among the top three in clean sheet probabilities, it has very favorable fixtures coming up.
This is where the official FPL FDR tool and other color-coding tools fall short. They display vague color codes that don’t accurately represent the fixture difficulty. Our tool gives you precise numeric values and color codes to help visualize the data.
How do you translate this information into player selection? Use our FPL lineups tool to determine which players are the regular starters. You can then use the official FPL data to identify which players have the best xGI per 90 values, indicating potential. After that, you should also check what the popular FPL influencers are saying to give you an idea of what other FPL managers will likely pick.
FPL is a game of strategy. Sometimes you want to make a different choice than others, while at other times it’s wise to make a “meta selection” to reduce the risk of being wrong. We publish weekly blog posts to share the best ideas.
Why should you use our FPL Fixture Difficulty Planner?
Here are the pros and cons of using our FPL Fixture Difficulty Planner. The pros are as follows:
- Uniqueness. Our fixture difficulty rating for FPL is unique, giving you an edge over the millions of FPL managers who use the same tool.
- Precise values. The official FPL FDR and other rival tools provide only color codes, which are largely inaccurate and imprecise. You can make better decisions by viewing numeric values that can be compared precisely across teams.
- Better data. The official FPL FDR tool and other rivaling tools are wrong. They assign generic red and green colors to all teams, so these tools may indicate that Arsenal’s away game against Brentford is a challenging fixture, even though Arsenal is a big favorite. These tools provide unreliable information, especially if the team you are evaluating is at the top or the bottom of the table.
- Updated info. We update our FPL Fixture Difficulty Ratings every two gameweeks to ensure the info is relevant.
- Tips. Not only do you get the FPL difficulty data, but you can also read our tips based on the information. Our team is beating 95%+ %+ of other FPL teams, which should be a good reason to take notes.
Are there any cons to using our FPL Fixture Difficulty Planner? Yes, there are. You should remember the following:
- Uniqueness. Our uniqueness can also lead to missteps with some teams if our ratings don’t align with the market. If we estimate a particular team’s goal-scoring chances too low, you might skip their forwards and lose positions if other FPL managers have chosen those players.
- Injuries and suspensions. This data excludes suspensions, injuries, potential rotation of key players, and other factors. It’s purely based on historical match data.
- Promoted teams. It’s challenging to get the promoted teams right if they haven’t featured in the Premier League before. Sometimes, this leads to significant under- or overestimations. However, everyone else has the same problem.
- Key players. Sometimes, there are outstanding players on poor teams you should consider selecting, even if the team’s data looks terrible. FPL is all about how many points you get with the money invested. A cheap player in a poor team might not stand out enough in a tool like this.